Some clues are misleading... Not just in criminal cases. On the stock market also. In the early spring, April 3 to be very precise, index CAC 40 "was worth" 5.711,91 points. In the early fall, September 26, it revolved around 5.600 points. Is it nothing happened in the meantime
The allocation of assets proposed in early April by DNCA Finance Corporation and published in "Les Echos" dated Friday 6 and Saturday 7 April and that proposed early October by the same management company are separated only by a season. But sometimes some seasons are (much) more than others. The scorching summer lived by the financial markets, the mortgage crisis in the United States (the "sub-prime") belongs to this! This is not because the CAC 40 index at the end of September resembles that of the beginning of the spring asset allocation was Joseph Chatel preferences, President of DNCA Finance and Xavier Delaye, responsible for the allocation of assets, their is still valid. Quite the contrary! "The level of the CAC 40 index is virtually the same in early April and late September, but the visibility on the results of the companies has deteriorated considerably," explains Xavier Delaye.
Preference for Europe
In early spring, the distribution of assets by DNCA Finance was as follows: 63 equity, 35 in bonds and 2 gold. The Interior of the "Pocket" actions, Xavier Delaye preferences went to European actions: they accounted for 36 of investments in shares, while the France accounted for only 16, the international actions for 5, the Japan for 4.5 and Asia (excluding Japan) to 1.5.
Today's proposed Xavier Delaye First response: "We are also careful that we were in the month of April." We will remain as long as visibility in particular on the American housing market will not improve. "From a management company for which caution has always been a cardinal virtue, the repetition makes sense. Second reply from the first: asset allocation proposed today by Xavier Delaye is still less beautiful part in the actions as early April. They represent more than 45. But Xavier Delaye does not strengthen their share as soon as the opportunity or rather opportunities arise. "We shall take advantage of market declines that may be excessive for purchase when we will see clearer and when the price of the shares (PER) will be more attractive", he said. Points of entry will be "then and there will be alors a medium and long term investor."
Once the part of the actions has been reduced to what geographic areas are interested Here again, a distribution of assets to another, many things have changed. Inside the "Office" actions, Xavier Delaye proposed to devote 2 to the actions of the emerging countries. "Emerging countries have changed". They have become much more autonomous from the evolution of the economies of the industrialized countries. "But once again, prudence remains appropriate. "We expect as saint Thomas has more correlation between emerging and developed countries to believe", explains the head of the allocation of assets of DNCA Finance. The Japan has disappeared from the distribution of assets of the Corporation. There are several reasons for this. As Xavier Delaye, said "the Japan comes not deflation, domestic consumption do not again and the Japanese do not redeem their market (they don't buy shares).
The head of the allocation of assets of DNCA Finance spends 5 of its investments in US stocks. But he stressed the fact that investors must use a covered against exchange rate risk investment funds. "The US stock market is still better than the European awards," he said. On the other hand, the evolution of the dollar against the euro remains random...
Finally, Xavier Delaye devotes 15 of its investments in shares in the France and 23 for the rest of Europe. Why so "Our European Pocket is also important because we are on our monetary zone," he says. He added that "the productivity of European companies is better than American companies."
Caution redouble Joseph Chatel and Xavier Delaye measure is of course the made part today in their distribution of assets to other products that the shares. 55 of the portfolio are invested in monetary products. Hear them well! This is "pure monetary products." In other words, monetary unit trusts or mutual fund money "regular" are virtually any risk to investors. Nothing to do with monetary "dynamic" SICAVs which have exploded in flight in the summer because they were invested in part of securities who closely or from afar something to do with the "sub-prime". The sicav monetary regular report today almost 4, as Joseph Chatel.
All accounts made, now defended by Joseph Chatel and Xavier Delaye asset allocation reflects their vision reasonable and principled approach to the evolution of the stock market. "The stock market has risen because corporate profits have increased, they stress." However, the PER remained stable. "They draw the conclusion that"the stock market is not overvalued"and should"be even actions. " According to them, "the period can seem delicate", but as they say, "we are in a crisis of confidence: nobody wants to lend to anyone, because everyone is afraid that his creditor be default.". Even between banks prefer to lend themselves to very short deadlines which do not exceed a few days. "But we are in a liquidity crisis or an economic crisis still on them.
For Joseph Chatel, the subprime crisis would not serious in itself if it had not produced significant collateral damage. If the only financial institutions us concerned, those which were granted (very) risky real estate loans, had gone bankrupt and nothing that them , the fire would have been enough quickly circumscribed. But, he says, "concerned institutions have resold their claims of poor quality in part to the rest of the world and we saw them reappear in the monetary sicav dynamic in France or in German banks balance sheets or in that of the Bank of China".
Of course, Joseph Chatel does not hide his impatience. "It is imperative that shuts down the crisis of confidence", he says. An impatience which is the thing in the world the best shared these days...